Tremendous Bowl 57 Betting Tendencies, Stats, Notes: Motion Community Betting Primer
Welcome to Tremendous Bowl week and the official Tremendous Bowl 57 betting primer. We’re right here to reply some questions, dish out some stats and information, discuss props, sides, totals, exotics, Gatorade, the anthem and extra.
Welcome to the Tremendous Bowl version of Motion Community’s NFL betting primer.
All information, stats and developments are up to date as of Tuesday, Feb. 7, 12 p.m. ET.
Patrick Mahomes is 7-1-1 towards the unfold (87.5%) as an underdog in his profession, the very best win proportion as an underdog because the merger. If Mahomes closes as an underdog in Tremendous Bowl 57, it is going to forestall him from tying Peyton Manning for the longest streak (14) as a betting favourite within the playoffs in Tremendous Bowl historical past.
Comply with the road motion within the Tremendous Bowl. Eighteen occasions in Tremendous Bowl historical past, the road has moved 1.5 factors or extra from opening to closing. The staff’s course the road strikes towards (-4 to -6, +6 to +4.5) is 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS.
The 2 losses: SB 48 Broncos vs. Seattle, SB 25 Payments vs. Giants.
Final 12 months, in Tremendous Bowl 56, the Rams received 23-20 however didn’t cowl the 4.5-point unfold, giving the quilt to the Bengals. Getting into the sport, Tremendous Bowl winners with a diffusion of six or much less had been 28-0 ATS.
Now, getting into Tremendous Bowl 57, 21 Tremendous Bowls have had a diffusion of 4 or fewer. The straight-up winner has lined all 21 – 11 favorites SU & 10 canine SU.
Tremendous Bowl LVII
Tremendous Bowl Betting Historical past
Level Spreads
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| Favorites | 36-20 | 27-27-2 |
| Tremendous Bowl Winners | 56-0 | 47-7-2 |
| Favorites (1 seed v 1 seed)* | 7-6 | 7-6 |
| Chiefs in Tremendous Bowl | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Eagles in Tremendous Bowl | 1-2 | 2-1 |
Over/Unders
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| Totals in Tremendous Bowl Historical past | 26-28-1 |
| Totals of fifty or extra | 3-9-1 |
| Final 10 Years* | 5-5 |
| Chiefs in Tremendous Bowl** | 0-3 |
| Eagles in Tremendous Bowl | 1-2 |
Betting Markets
- Public sides are 10-9 straight up and towards the unfold within the Tremendous Bowl since 2004.
For the primary time since 2010-11, the general public facet has misplaced ATS in consecutive Tremendous Bowls (2021-22). The general public facet final misplaced three straight between 2005-07 with the Patriots, Seahawks & Bears.
- Comply with the road motion within the Tremendous Bowl.
Eighteen occasions in Tremendous Bowl historical past, the road has moved 1.5 factors or extra from the opening to closing traces. The staff’s course the road strikes towards (-4 to -6, +6 to +4.5) is 16-2 straight up and 14-4 towards the unfold.
The 2 losses: SB 48 Broncos vs. Seattle, SB 25 Payments vs. Giants.
The staff that closed with the upper unfold deal with proportion has predicted 5 of the previous 6 Tremendous Bowl winners. The Chiefs towards the Bucs was the one loss.
Total in Tremendous Bowl historical past, the below is 11-8 within the final 19 Tremendous Bowls.
- The over has acquired public help 15 occasions in these 19 video games: The over is simply 6-9.
- The Tremendous Bowl complete has solely closed with the vast majority of the tickets on the below thrice within the Wager Labs database: 2004, 2012 and 2014. The below is simply 1-2.
Total, the general public is simply 7-11 betting Tremendous Bowl totals (landed precisely 50%/50% in 2005).
All betting market information is by way of the Motion Labs platform and the Wager Labs database.
Tremendous Bowl Sport Props
| Market | Stat | Wager Now at FanDuel w/QuickSlip |
|---|---|---|
| QB Interceptions | Mixed interceptions have gone over 1.5 in 4 straight Tremendous Bowls, together with 7 of the previous 9. | + P. Mahomes + J. Hurts |
| Longest TD | Longest TD has gone below in 6 of the previous 8 Tremendous Bowls (went over final 12 months) | Beneath |
| Shortest TD | Shortest TD has gone below in 8 of the previous 10 Tremendous Bowls (3 straight) | Beneath |
| HT/FT | Prior to now 10 Tremendous Bowls, the SU winner has not trailed on the finish of the primary quarter or the half in 9 of them (exception? Falcons/Patriots) | + Chiefs + Eagles |
| Coin Toss | The previous 8 winners of the coin toss have all deferred after which all subsequently misplaced the sport straight up. The previous 12 winners of the coin toss have deferred to the second half. Final to obtain? Saints vs. Colts in SB 44 | Coin Toss Winner Loses Sport |
| Will there be a security? | Security hasn’t occurred in 8 straight Tremendous Bowls (hit in 3 straight earlier than that). | No Security |
| Early Rating | There hasn’t been a rating within the first 6 minutes of the previous 6 Tremendous Bowls. Final fast rating? Broncos/Panthers in Tremendous Bowl 50. | No Factors First 6 min. |
| Defensive or Particular Groups TD | A defensive or particular groups TD hasn’t been scored in 5 straight Tremendous Bowls. The final? Falcons/Patriots and Broncos/Panthers in back-to-back years. | No DEF/ST TD |
| 2-pt Conversion | A two-point conversion hasn’t been transformed in 5 straight Tremendous Bowls. The final? Falcons/Patriots and Broncos/Panthers in back-to-back years. | No 2-pt Conversion |
| Rating Final/Sport End result | Workforce that scored final has received every of the previous 17 Tremendous Bowls. Final Tremendous Bowl the place the staff who scored final misplaced was Patriots-Eagles 2004-05. | Workforce to attain final wins sport SU |
| Frequent Last Margin | The most typical ultimate margin in Tremendous Bowl historical past is 3 pts (7X). The following closest is 4 pts (6X). | Sport determined by precisely 3 pts |
Workforce Tendencies
Chiefs entered the playoffs 6-11 ATS (35.3%). Within the 56-year historical past of the Tremendous Bowl, no staff has received the Tremendous Bowl with lower than a 40% ATS win pct getting into the playoffs. The earlier groups went 0-3 straight up.
Worst ATS Groups to Make a Tremendous Bowl:
- 2004 Panthers, 6-10 ATS (37.5%) (NE 32-29, NE -7)
- 1980 Rams, 5-10-1 ATS (33.3%) (PIT 31-19, PIT -10.5)
- 1977 Vikings, 5-8-1 ATS (38.5%) (OAK 32-14, OAK -4.5)
KC is eighth staff previous 20 years to enter Tremendous Bowl on at the least a 7-game SU successful streak.
These groups are 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS). All 8 video games had staff on the streak successful the sport or the margin 4 pts or much less.
Chiefs entered 2019-20 Tremendous Bowl on 8-game win streak and beat the San Francisco 49ers.
The Chiefs protection has allowed 20 factors or fewer in three consecutive video games. When the Ok.C. protection will get sizzling, be careful. Mahomes and Co. are 17-2 SU after permitting 20 pts or fewer in consecutive video games, successful 10 in a row courting again to 2020.
The Chiefs’ streak of 15 consecutive playoff video games as a favourite would come to an finish (longest streak within the Tremendous Bowl period).
The Chiefs can be favored of their sixteenth straight playoff sport — the longest streak within the Tremendous Bowl period. Their final playoff sport as an underdog? 2016 Divisional at Patriots. Alex Smith vs. Tom Brady. The Patriots received 27-20.
Chiefs-Bengals was a rematch of final 12 months’s AFC title sport. Within the Tremendous Bowl period, this was the seventh time two franchises met in at the least two straight Convention Championships. The winner of the rematch is 7-1 within the Tremendous Bowl – the one loss was the 1987 Broncos.
Much more distinctive. Chiefs bought revenge on the Bengals within the rematch. That’s solely the 4th time thats occurred. Workforce loses 1st, wins 2nd. These three groups are 3-0 SU within the Tremendous Bowl.
The Eagles have been 25-1 to win all of it within the preseason, which ranked thirteenth within the NFL behind groups just like the Colts, Broncos and Rams.
Over the previous 40 years, the Eagles at 25-1 odds can be the seventh-highest odds to win the Tremendous Bowl.
Eagles have allowed simply 7 factors in consecutive video games (14 in complete) getting into the Tremendous Bowl.
Groups to permit lower than 14 pts in consecutive video games getting into Tremendous Bowl since 2000:
- 2018 Eagles – Received
- 2003 Bucs – Received
- 2001 Giants & Ravens
Within the Tremendous Bowl, the Eagles can be taking part in their first sport away from residence since they confronted the Cowboys in Dallas the day earlier than Christmas — precisely 50 days to the day of Tremendous Bowl LVII.
- Eagles have been the eighth staff to play their 4th consecutive residence sport getting into a Convention Championship within the final 20 years. These groups are actually 7-1 SU. The one loss? 2019 Saints vs. Rams
- These earlier six groups to win within the Convention Championship after the house streak went a good 3-3 SU/ATS within the Tremendous Bowl.
Eagles are 14-5 towards the primary half unfold, essentially the most worthwhile first-half ATS staff this season.
Eagles are 16-3 in a 6-pt teaser this season, tied for the 2nd-best file within the NFL behind the Chargers at 16-2.
Eagles have 8 complete sacks within the playoffs, bringing their complete to 78 on the season, the Third-most sacks for any staff in a single season because the merger (1970).
Most Sacks in a Season All-Time (Together with Playoffs)
- 1984 Bears (82 sacks)
- 1985 Bears (80 sacks)
- 2022 Eagles (78 sacks)
For the reason that NFL merger in 1970, 9 groups have recorded 65+ sacks as a staff within the common season. Eagles are the primary of these 9 to even make a Tremendous Bowl.
Quarterback Tendencies
➤ 2022 Report: 16-3 SU | 7-12 ATS
➤ Playoffs: 10-3 SU | 8-5 ATS➤ Tendencies:
• The Chiefs are underdogs. The general public is fading Kansas Metropolis. We heard the identical story final week early on and Ok.C. ended up closing as the favourite. The Chiefs closed with 37% of the tickets, the bottom wager % of Mahomes’ 93-start profession. This could solely be the third time Mahomes closes as a favourite, with the minority share of the ticket depend:
• Mahomes’ 18th begin in January or later. He’s been favored the earlier 17 getting into the Tremendous Bowl — he’s 13-4 SU and 9-8 ATS.
• Mahomes is 18-6-1 ATS as a favourite of three factors or fewer (or an underdog) in his profession (30-37-1 ATS as favourite of three.5 or extra).
• This would be the seventh Tremendous Bowl to characteristic the league chief in common season passing yards (Mahomes). Every of the earlier 6 misplaced SU within the Tremendous Bowl. The primary was Dan Marino in 1984. The opposite 5 have all come after the 12 months 2000 (Brady X2, P. Manning, R. Gannon, Ok. Warner).
• Mahomes is 7-10-2 towards the second-half unfold this season, his least worthwhile 2H ATS 12 months as a professional.
+ After shedding the second-half unfold towards the Bengals, Mahomes has a 8-4-1 2H ATS file within the playoffs.
+ Within the Chiefs’ previous 9 video games with Mahomes, Kansas Metropolis is 0-7-2 towards the second-half unfold getting into the Tremendous Bowl.
• Away from residence this season, Mahomes and the Chiefs are 6-3 to the over. For the reason that starting of final season, they’re 12-5 to the over away from Arrowhead with Mahomes.
Tremendous Bowl Location: Glendale, Arizona
➤ Time Zone: Mountain Commonplace Time (MST)
Mahomes has performed 19 video games in his professional profession both within the Pacific or Mountain Commonplace time zone. Mahomes is 17-2 straight up in these video games. His two losses? Again in 2018 towards the Rams and Seahawks. Mahomes is 7-0 SU in MST and 13-0 SU in PST and MST because the begin of the 2019 season.
➤ If Favored: Mahomes can be favored in his 14th straight playoff sport (T-longest streak all-time with Peyton Manning).
➤ If Underdog: Mahomes streak of 13 consecutive playoff video games to begin his profession as a favourite would come to an finish. Longest streak ever to start profession and 1 sport shy of Peyton Manning’s streak of 14 straight playoff video games as a favourite.
The Eventual MVP? Mahomes is anticipated to win the MVP Award this season after receiving 49 of the 50 potential first-place votes for the AP All-Professional staff. How has the MVP traditionally fared within the playoffs?
➤ Received MVP: 10 complete occasions (Final? Kurt Warner in 1999)
➤ The Relaxation: 56 misplaced within the Tremendous Bowl or prior
➤ 2022 Report: 16-1 SU | 10-7 ATS
➤ Playoffs: 2-1 SU | 2-1 ATS➤ Tendencies:
• Hurts is 21-4 (84%) straight up in video games by which his staff is favored (13-11-1 ATS). Prior to now 20 years, no QB (minimal 20 begins) has a greater win pct as a favourite than Hurts.
2022 vs. 2021 at 2021 at 2020 at
• This season, the Eagles are 16-1 straight up with Jalen Hurts and 0-2 SU with out him.
• Hurts has had success vs. the very best of the very best this season, going 7-0 SU vs. playoff groups.
• Hurts, 24, can be the youngest QB to win a Tremendous Bowl out of the NFC (Jared Goff was 24 in 2019).
Tremendous Bowl Location: Glendale, Arizona
The Tremendous Bowl is in Arizona, not Philadelphia. Hurts has carried out significantly better at residence than on the highway.
➤ Dwelling: 13-5-1 ATS – 10-3 ATS at residence as an underdog or a favourite of seven factors or fewer.
➤ Away: 6-12 ATS – Beneath .500 ATS on the highway every of his three seasons within the NFL.
Tremendous Bowl Expertise: Mahomes (Third) | Hurts (1st)
➤ Does It Matter? QBs with Tremendous Bowl expertise (began a SB previous to this 12 months), dealing with a QB with no SB expertise, are 19-15 SU and 16-18 ATS all-time.
➤ Even Extra Expertise: This would be the twenty first time in Tremendous Bowl historical past the place one QB has a 2+ Tremendous Bowl expertise hole, the skilled QB is 12-8 SU.
➤ First Half King: Jalen Hurts is 13-4 towards the first-half unfold this season, essentially the most worthwhile QB ATS within the first half within the NFL.
➤ Final Yr: Hurts was 5-11 towards the first-half unfold
➤ Not often Trailing: Hurts is 11-1-2 on the 1H moneyline in his previous 14 begins.
➤ Useless Even: Hurts is 8-8-1 towards the second-half unfold this season.
The Andy Reid Bowl
Reid’s Profession as Head Coach with Eagles & Chiefs
When Andy Reid was fired by Philadelphia and employed by Kansas Metropolis in 2012, Nick Sirianni was the WR coach in KC. Reid didn’t maintain Sirianni on his employees. Sirianni bought his NFL begin with the Chiefs, having spent 4 seasons in Kansas Metropolis from 2009-12 in quite a lot of roles.
Andy Reid turns into the fifth head coach to face his former staff within the Tremendous Bowl. The final was Pete Carroll again in 2014.
Beneath Andy Reid, the Chiefs are 3-0 straight up and towards the unfold vs. the Eagles.
2021, -6.5 at PHI (W, 42-30)
2017, -4 vs. PHI (W, 27-20)
2013, +3 at PHI (W, 26-16)
Teaching expertise within the Tremendous Bowl “doesn’t matter.” Coach that has extra expertise is simply 18-17 SU and 16-19 ATS. After they have a 2-plus Tremendous Bowl expertise hole, they’re simply 10-14 SU and 8-15-1 ATS.
Participant Stats & Props
Passing yards outcomes of the previous 10 years (20 QB props):
- 11 of 20 went below
- 3x each went over
- 4x each went below
- 4x QB went over in a shedding effort (Brady vs PHL & SEA, Cam vs DEN, Kaep vs BAL)
- For the third consecutive sport, Mahomes stored a clear sheet within the interception column. He hasn’t gone 4 straight video games with no choose since Oct. 2020.
In Mahomes’ two earlier Tremendous Bowls, he has thrown 4 interceptions, two in every sport.
- Mahomes has gone below 10 speeding yards in 6 of his previous 8 video games.
- Mahomes has gone below 2.5 go TDs in 7 of his previous 9 video games.
- This Tremendous Bowl would be the seventh to characteristic a beginning quarterback that led the common season in passing yards – this 12 months, that’s Patrick Mahomes. Every of the earlier 6 misplaced straight up.
- In opposition to the Bengals within the AFC Championship Sport, Mahomes and Travis Kelce (13) handed Joe Montana and Jerry Rice (12) for the second-most touchdowns all time within the playoffs for a QB-Receiver duo.
Mahomes and Kelce are actually two TDs away from tying Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski (15) for essentially the most all time.
Kelce has a landing in 5 consecutive playoff video games, the 2nd-longest streak for a TE within the playoffs all-time. Gronkowski caught a TD in six consecutive playoff video games between 2015 and 2018.
For the reason that 12 months 2000, 5 rookie RBs have carried the ball 10+ occasions in a Tremendous Bowl. They’re 5-0 SU & ATS in these video games.
- 2019 Sony Michel NE
- 2013 Bernard Pierce BAL
- 2011 James Starks GB
- 2007 Joseph Addai IND
- 2001 Jamal Lewis BAL
Jerick McKinnon has been held with no TD within the playoffs. He scored a Receiving TD in his previous 6 video games to complete out the common season.
Most Rec TD Single Season by RB Final 30 Years (Incl. playoffs)
- 9 – Jerick McKinnon (2022)
- 9 – Marshall Faulk (2000 & 2001)
- Hurts has thrown below 250 passing yards in three straight video games, 8 of his previous 10 video games and 11 of his previous 14 video games.
9 of the previous 10 QBs to face the Chiefs went below their passing yards prop.
- Hurts has solely eclipsed 30 or extra go makes an attempt in 4 of his previous 12 video games. On the Chiefs facet although, opposing QBs have gone over their passing makes an attempt prop in 5 straight video games.
- The previous 5 QBs to face the Chiefs have all thrown precisely 1 TD go towards them. Previous to that, 14 of the previous 16 QBs had gone over their go TD prop vs. Kansas Metropolis’s protection.
- The Eagles OL has been incredible this 12 months.
83 OL have performed 600+ pass-blocking snaps this season, 19 of these 83 OL have allowed one sack or fewer. 4 of these linemen have been Eagles: Isaac Seumalo, Landon Dickerson, Jason Kelce & Lane Johnson.
Goedert has been very constant. He has 5+ rec in 4 straight playoff video games, tied for the Eagles’ longest playoff streak because the merger (Zach Ertz and Duce Staley).
Sanders has gone below 1.5 receptions in 7 consecutive video games and in 12 of his previous 14 video games.
Novelty Props
Full Gatorade information since 2001: Yr-by-year picks, present odds and most decisions in complete:
Full Nationwide Anthem information since 2007: Yr-by-year occasions, over/unders and outcomes:
Tidbits:
+ 5 of the previous 6 anthems have been below 2:05. The exception had two singers on the mic.
+ Chris Stapleton’s over/below of two:05 is the very best because the final nation singer, Luke Bryan, who went below by 5 seconds.
Full coin toss information in 56-year Tremendous Bowl historical past: Yr-by-year heads/tails, staff who received the toss and did they find yourself successful the sport:
Tremendous Bowl MVP
Let’s first check out every Tremendous Bowl MVP and their odds over the previous 20 years:
Each Jalen Hurts (+110) and Patrick Mahomes (+125) are below +200 to win the Tremendous Bowl MVP getting into the sport, simply the second time previously 20 years each the first and 2nd favorites are below +200 to win Tremendous Bowl MVP (2021 Brady/Mahomes).
Final Time It Occurred:
- 2021: Mahomes (-105) & Brady (+190)
10 of the previous 13 Tremendous Bowl MVPs have been below 10-1 odds (Edelman, Von Miller, Malcolm Smith).
Cooper Kupp received at 6-1 odds final 12 months. At that worth or decrease, its been 12 of the previous 16 Tremendous Bowl MVP winners.
Chiefs Tremendous Bowl MVP Historical past
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| Tremendous Bowl 57 | +125 | +1100 |
| Tremendous Bowl 55 (TB 31, KC 9) |
-105 | +1100 |
| Tremendous Bowl 54 (KC 31, SF 20) |
+105(*) | +2000 |
How Did They Carry out?
Tremendous Bowl 55
+ Mahomes: 270 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
+ Kelce: 10 rec, 133 yds
Tremendous Bowl 54
+ Mahomes: 286 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
+ Kelce: 6 rec, 43 yds, TD
Can a Defensive Participant Win the Award?
4 defensive gamers have received the award since 2000. Right here is how the defender carried out, their odds and the way the QB did within the sport.
+ 2015 Von Miller, Denver Broncos (+2500) — 2.5 sacks, 2 Compelled Fumbles
Neither QB threw a TD go.
+ 2013 Malcolm Smith, Seattle Seahawks (+10000) — INT, TD, 10 tackles and Fumble Restoration
Russell Wilson: 206 go yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
+ 2002 Dexter Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (N/A) — 2 Interceptions
Brad Johnson: 215 go yds, 2 TD, INT
+ 2000 Ray Lewis, Baltimore Ravens (N/A) — 4 Move deflections, 5 tackles .. allowed 7 pts
Trent Dilfer: 153 go yds, TD
Odds by way of SportsOddsHistory
Landing Zone
This part is all the pieces and something landing for the Tremendous Bowl and the Chiefs & Eagles.
Referee Tendencies
The lead official for Tremendous Bowl 57 can be Carl Cheffers. Listed here are a number of developments and notes on Cheffers:
+ 2021: Bucs/Chiefs (-3, 55) TB, 31-9 (15 penalties) + 2017: Falcons/Patriots (-3, 57) NE, 34-28 (13 penalties) |
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Cheffers has refereed 14 complete Eagles video games. PHI is 6-8 SU, 5-9 ATS. 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS with Hurts (Week 18 Giants sport). |
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